Учебное пособие по английскому языку для студентов 4 курса факультета экономики
Скачать 0.64 Mb.
|
Grossly distorted pictureIf you look at GDP per head, the world is a different—and, by and large, a better—placeWHICH economy has enjoyed the best economic performance over the past five years: America's or Japan's? Most people will pick America. The popular perception is that America's vibrant economy was sprinting ahead (albeit fuelled by credit and housing bubbles that have now painfully burst), whereas Japan crawled along at a snail's pace. And it is true that America's average annual real GDP growth of 2.9% was much faster than Japan's 2.1%. However, the single best gauge of economic performance is not growth in GDP, but GDP per person, which is a rough guide to average living standards. It tells a completely different story. GDP growth figures flatter America's relative performance, because its population is rising much faster, by 1% a year, thanks to immigration and a higher birth rate. In contrast, the number of Japanese citizens has been shrinking since 2005. Once you take account of this, Japan's GDP per head increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the five years to 2007, slightly faster than America's 1.9% and much better than Germany's 1.4%. In other words, contrary to the popular pessimism about Japan's economy, it has actually enjoyed the biggest gain in average income among the big three rich economies. Among all the G7 economies it ranks second only to Britain (see left-hand chart). Using growth in GDP per head rather than crude GDP growth reveals a strikingly different picture of other countries' economic health. For example, Australian politicians often boast that their economy has had one of the fastest growth rates among the major developed nations—an average of 3.3% over the past five years. But Australia has also had one of the biggest increases in population; its GDP per head has grown no faster than Japan's over this period. Likewise, Spain has been one of the euro area's star performers in terms of GDP growth, but over the past three years output per person has grown more slowly than in Germany, which like Japan, has a shrinking population. Some emerging economies also look less impressive when growth is compared on a per-person basis. One of the supposedly booming BRIC countries, Brazil, has seen its GDP per head increase by only 2.3% per year since 2003, barely any faster than Japan's. Russia, by contrast, enjoyed annual average growth in GDP per head of 7.4% because the population is falling faster than in any other large country (by 0.5% a year). Indians love to boast that their economy's growth rate has almost caught up with China's, but its population is also expanding much faster. Over the past five years, the 10.2% average increase in China's income per head dwarfed India's 6.8% gain.  Focusing on GDP per person also affects comparisons of economic health over time. During the past five years, world GDP has grown by an average of 4.5% a year, its fastest for more than three decades, though not as fast as during the golden age of the 1960s when annual growth exceeded 5%. But the world's population is now growing at half of its pace in the 1960s, and so world income per head has increased by more over the past five years than during any other period on record (see right-hand chart above). Mankind has never had it so good. UNIT 3. DISCRIPTIVE STATISTICS READING/SPEAKING Text 1. Calculating central tendencies 1 You've been given an assignment that will involve reporting on trends in your department. You will have to summarize the numbers and explain what they mean, and although the task is complicated, you'll be given only five minutes to present your facts. 2 This is typical of the problems you face every day. With a huge amount of information available, you need to quickly identify the significance behind a group of numbers, tell other people what those numbers mean, and achieve these goals without the luxury of time. 3 Much of the work you do in communicating with others involves descriptive statistics—methods of studying and summarizing a series of numbers. Not only do you need to summarize the meaning of today's numbers, you also need to relate the information as part of a trend. Are the numbers better or worse than they were last month or last year? And what is likely to happen in the future? 4 Even more challenging is the need to tell others how predictable your estimates are. For example, you must project financial information for the coming year. Are your estimates fairly certain, or are they more difficult to pin down? The degree of predictability can be defined and compared by use of statistical techniques. 5 The process of estimating and defining begins with the collection of the numbers you will use. For example, to study trends in sales by division, you need to gather sales figures. To report on the cost of hiring new employees, you will start with information on salaries and benefits. And to study production trends, you will first gather records of shift performance for a period of weeks, months, or years. So, when your data has been carefully chosen what to do then? The answer is to deal with the central tendency. Central tendency is a summary of raw data calculated to identify a significant trend or tendency in a distribution. 6 Of the three central tendencies (mean, median, and mode), the best known is the mean, more popularly called the average. A mean is calculated by adding up the values in the distribution and then dividing the total by the number of values. So, mean is the average of distribution, calculated by adding all the values and dividing that total by the number of values. 7 The mean (or, average) is a common form of statistical work in business. But it does not always give you the exact information you need. In some cases, exceptionally large or small values in your distribution will skew the average to the point that it is not meaningful. 8 The median presents an alternative. The median is the exact middle value in a distribution; half the values are greater and half are less than the median. In some instances, the median will give you a more accurate central tendency than the mean will. The average is most useful when your task is to spot growing trends over time. The median may be used when you want to find out what the representative middle number for a distribution is. Calculating the mean and median is fairly simple. Your real challenge is deciding which to report and how to interpret your results. And that depends on the conclusions you want to reach. 9 The third measure of central tendency is the mode, which is the value that appears most frequently in a distribution. As a supplemental test, the mode is helpful in deciding whether conclusions are accurate. Mode is the value that appears most often in a distribution. If a list contains no values that appear more than once, there is no mode. An example is the number of transactions processed during each of six months in your department. Because no single value was repeated, there is no mode. When more than one value appears more than once, they are both modes. An example is the list of absent days per employee during the year. On that list, the values 9 and 4 each appeared twice; this is a bimodal distribution. 10 The mode can be used to calculate likely future events in a way similar to the median. In some cases, the median will be an inaccurate representation of what is likely to occur in the future. EXERCISES 1. Read the following words paying attention to the proper pronunciation of the underlined vowels, consonants, and the stress. assignment, to present, typical, these/this, series, to project, fairly, techniques, mode, to skew, greater, whether, per employee, bimodal, inaccurate, to occur 2. Answer the following questions. 1. What does the term trend mean? How to identify a trend? 2 What information you need to study trends in:
3 What role do average values play in Statistics? 4 How to make sure that an average value is accurate and represents the nature of the population? 5 Why do analysts need three average indices: mean, median and mode, and not the mean only? 6 How do analysts decide which type of average to choose in their analysis? 7 Using the distribution given below calculate: mean, median, mode. During the first 9 months of the year, the customer service department got a varying number of complaints:
3 Decide whether the following statements are true or false.
4 Complete the following sentences using your own ideas
5. Find English equivalents in Text 1.
6. Match terms on the left with their corresponding definitions on the right.
7. Find partners among the following words to make up a collocation.
8. Translate the following sentences using terms and collocations from the text and the previous tasks.
9 Fill in the gaps using words from the box procedure trends calculation inaccurate distribution affect variables values range spot In practice, seasonal variation, growth __1__, and other internal changes could make simple average figures __2__. For this reason, you may want to use one of several other averages that take into account such __3__. One of these is the simple moving average. Moving average is a series of calculations used to __4__ trends that develop over time. This technique offsets the effect of a widely varying __5__ by identifying the typical past experience and likely future experience. In other words, this __6__ stabilizes the range when the individual __7__ vary considerably, or when you believe that averages are changing over time and you need to project how that trend will __8__ the future. A moving average is appropriate when your __9__ involves a time study such as monthly transactions. The moving average is calculated by (1) figuring the mean for a limited number of values, (2) adding one new value and dropping one old value for the next calculation, and (3) repeating this __10__ through the entire distribution. The moving average helps even out a trend, even when the distribu tion has a very wide range. Still, it's sometimes necessary to add more weight to some of the values on your distribution list. 10. Choose the correct letter.
11 Choose the correct preposition.
12 Choose the proper form of the word to complete the sentence accurate 1 The _________________ of his account makes bank managers loyal towards him. 2 Her report on what happened was ___________________ in every detail. 3 The work has been done so ________________, that the manager was granted with the charter. representative 1 She ________________ her fellow-worker at the union meeting. 2 They made _________________ to the University authorities about the bad accommodations. 3 Are your opinion ________________ of those of the other students? 4 I could not be present myself, but I sent my _________________ to the meeting. to calculate 1 These ______________ are based on the latest statistics. 2 The government has to ________________ the likely effect on revenues of a big drop in the oil price. 3 I took a _______________ risk when I bought those shares. 4 When dealing with these figures don’t forget about the ___________________ rules. 13 Identify which mathematical term (a-i) describes the examples (1-9).
14 Look at the following pair of words, spot the difference and do the task. effective ≠ efficient
Insert the proper word effective or efficient
15 Match the numbers and symbols with their names
Text 2. Описательная статистика позволяет с помощью специальных методов осуществить удобное представление данных для последующего анализа в виде частотных распределений, графических изображений и различных характеристик. Общей чертой сведений, составляющих статистику, служит то, что в каждом конкретном случае объектом статистического изучения является статистическая совокупность, состоящая из качественно однородных единиц, но отличающихся по каким-то другим признакам. Качественная однородность элементов совокупности определяется исходя из цели исследования. Генеральной совокупностью называются все изучаемые однородные объекты, выборка - специально организованная часть генеральной совокупности. Задача получения необходимой информации решается с помощью двух взаимно дополняющих принципов: выборочного метода и свертки информации. Первый предусматривает отказ от генеральной совокупности в пользу выборки, второй - заменяет всю выборку несколькими числами (ее характеристиками). Статистические характеристики различают как для генеральной совокупности, так и для выборки. Необходимо сделать несколько замечаний по применению статистических методов:
Статистические методы в современной жизни находят свое применение в самых разнообразных областях: в экономике (исследования рынка и производства, контроль качества продукции, подбор кадрового персонала, предсказания конъюнктуры рынка и т.д.), в управлении (аппарат которого нуждается в информации о народонаселении, совокупном общественном продукте, внешней торговле). Без применения статистических методов практически невозможно никакое социально-научное исследование. С появлением компьютера, статистика проникает и в медицину, биологию, психологию и другие науки. В зависимости от учреждений, использующих статистические методы, различают официальную и неофициальную статистику. Под официальной статистикой понимают статистические исследования и меры по сбору информации, предпринимаемые в соответствии с правительственными распоряжениями. К неофициальной статистике относят исследования, проводимые в фирмах, институтах общественного мнения и на предприятиях. 1 Translate the underlined words and word combinations in the text. 2 Translate the following words and phrases without looking back to the text of the interview. statistical techniques – описательная статистика – the purpose of analysis - сбор информации – values - совокупный общественный продукт – frequency distribution - выборка – foreign commerce - генеральная совокупность – to collect data - графическое изображение – in accordance with the government’s regulations - конъюнктура рынка – mutually complementary principals- проводимые исследования – informal statistics. 3 Write a short summary of the text in English (80-100 words). 4 Study the following number writing rules. Rule 7 When expressing decades, you may spell them out and lowercase them. Example: During the eighties and nineties, the U.S. economy grew. Rule 8 If you wish to express decades using incomplete numerals, put an apostrophe before the incomplete numeral but not between the year and the s. Example: During the '80s and '90s, the U.S. economy grew. Rule 9 You may also express decades in complete numerals. Again, don't use an apostrophe between the year and the s. Example: During the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. economy grew. Practice: Decide whether the following sentences are correct or incorrect
Listening “State integrated monetary-credit policy” 1 You will hear the interview with Oleg Vyacheslavovich Iudin, ex-deputy Chairman of the Central bank. As you listen, find English equivalents of the following words and phrases. Question #1 семимиллиардный рост золотовалютных резервов, по итогам года, прогноз, ссылаться, умеренный сценарий, среднегодовая цена на нефть, заложенная в бюджете, делали предположение, приток или отток капитала, фактически, краткосрочный капитал Question #2 споры, председатель центрального банка, торговый баланс, точно спрогнозировать, придерживаться консервативного подхода, накопления в долларах, класть на депозит, наличная валюта, на сумму порядка 5-6 миллиардов долларов Question #3 ЦБ может немножечко ошибаться, гибкость в текущей политике, прогноз внешних и внутренних условий не сбывается Question #4 безобразный дефицитный бюджет, краткосрочные займы, рынок ГКО, будущий курс рубля Question #5 сбалансированный бюджет, дефицитный бюджет, ничем не обеспеченные деньги, бюджетники 2 Listen to the interview once again and complete the sentences using a word or a number of words. Question #1 1 The actual price per barrel which was not set out into the government’s plans was _____________. 2 The conservative plan did not take account of _____________________. 3 Short-term capital was finally _________________________. Question #2 1 The reason for heavy inflows of capital was ____________________. 2 Russian companies took advantage of the situation and started ________________________. 3 When Russian people change dollars to rubles, they are __________________ the Russian economy. Question #3 1 Most forecast mistakes come from _______________________. Question #4 1 The default was the result of the Central bank and _________________ activities. 2 The huge budget deficit was financially provided with ___________ ____________. 3 The “corridor” was supported to attract _________________ _______________ to the market. Question #5 1 Budget deficit financing through credits is called to be __________________________.Reading File Text 1 Applying statistical information Statistics has some techniques which can be used to summarize information and draw conclusions about likely future events. An example of this is isolating average dollar volume produced by each salesperson in each classification by years of service. This form of statistics involves the methods of summarizing a group of related abso lute values and is referred to as descriptive statistics. Beyond the techniques for summarizing and studying absolute values is statistical inference, which is a conclusion drawn by studying a small sample. The best-known example of this is an opinion poll or survey, in which a very small group is questioned and a generalized conclusion is derived to represent a much larger population.
Whenever you approach a task, the first step must be to gather the right information. So many of the errors made in business derive from the failure to take this first step. For example, a problem is posed and the solution is based on a series of facts that simply don't address the problem. The proper use of statistics must be based on a careful selection and organization of the facts you will use. Three methods for reporting numerical information in response to a question or to solve a problem are: gathering facts, arranging facts, and clarifying the question being asked. 1. Gathering facts. In some cases, the mere accumulation of the right data will solve the problem. For example, the president of the company wants to know how much money was spent on salaries last year; or the accounting department assigns rent on the basis of square footage for each section. 2. Arranging facts. Beyond gathering the right facts, the arrangement of information may also answer someone else's question. A sales man ager, asked to prepare a report showing the most productive and least productive salespeople, need only arrange information in the order of volume. 3. Clarifying the question. The gathering and arrangement of facts to give to someone else is a basic, although common, form of reporting. But in most instances, the request is made for a purpose beyond the mere conveyance of information. By asking what information the other person wants, you will be able to provide more than raw data. That's where the combination of statistical techniques and your own insight will improve your management and reporting skills. Example: A word processing department manager was asked to prepare a report summarizing turnaround time for documents of various lengths. She asked for clarification and discovered the purpose of the request. Management was considering upgrading the current system and replac ing it with one believed to be more efficient. With the problem clearly understood, the manager was able to provide the information needed— a report of the changes in turnaround time that occurred as the volume of work increased. Example: The president of a marketing company was considering expanding into a new territory. He hired a consultant to study the likely demand for the company's product. Because the president did not limit the scope of the report, it was expensive and largely useless. All the president had really needed was a summary of population trends and competitive factors. Chances are, the information could have been ob tained with a call to an area's library or chamber of commerce. Text 2 |
Похожие:
 | Данное учебное пособие прнедназначено для студентов 1 курса миу и является первой частью пособия по общему языку | | Мэо нацелено на развитие профессионально значимых для будущего экономиста-международника компетенций. В пособии также учитываются... |
| Учебное пособие по английскому языку для студентов заочного обучения экономических специальностей |  | Методическая разработка предназначена для студентов IV курса очного и заочного отделений филологического факультета. Целью является... |
| К. ф н., заведующая кафедрой иностранных языков рггу нефти и газа имени Губкина Е. Ю | | К. ф н., заведующая кафедрой иностранных языков рггу нефти и газа имени Губкина Е. Ю. Симакова |
| Л 47 Английская литература 1890-1960: Учебное пособие по английскому языку. 2-е изд. М.: Флинта, Наука, 2000. 144 с | | Учебное пособие предназначено для студентов 5 курса, обучающихся по специальности «Лечебное дело» |
| Учебное пособие предназначено для студентов 2 курса факультета мэо, которые изучают английский как второй иностранный язык | | ... |