Учебное пособие по английскому языку для студентов 4 курса факультета экономики
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World economic and financial indicatorsAmericans felt surprisingly cheery in May. Consumer confidence surged from 40.8 to 54.9 on the index published by the Conference Board, a research firm. House prices in America fell by 19.1% in the year to the first quarter, on the Case-Shiller national house-price index. Lower prices may be tempting buyers back to the market. Sales of existing homes rose by 2.9% in April. German businessmen were slightly less gloomy in May than in April. The index of business sentiment from IFO, a research institute based in Munich, edged up from 83.7 to 84.2. GDP in Germany fell by 3.8% in the first quarter, unrevised from an earlier estimate. More than half of the drop was down to the weakness of net exports. A collapse in business spending on plant and machinery accounted for much of the rest. Consumption rose by a healthy 0.5% from the previous quarter. South Africa’s GDP fell at an annualised rate of 6.4% in the three months to March, following a smaller drop in the previous quarter. Its mining industry shrank at the fastest rate since records began in 1960. The National Bank of Poland kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% on May 27th, but announced a reduction in the ratio of cash reserves it required from commercial banks, from 3.5% to 3%. Hungary’s central bank kept its main interest rate on hold at 9.5%, but analysts reckon the recent revival of the forint may allow cuts in interest rates later this year. Text 3 Can dinosaurs dance?Responding to the Asian challengeARE consumers in India and China too poor to afford high-quality Western goods? That used to be the old idea of doing business in these countries as firms offered watered-down versions of their products at reduced prices. Mr van Houten, of chipmaker NXP, says Indian and Chinese consumers are forcing multinationals to design sophisticated products that more closely meet their needs, and this is making firms operating in Asia better innovators. By recruiting ingenious local engineers and designers in places like Bangalore and Beijing, and paying close attention to trends and practices in the market, firms are coming up with products and services that can be sold in other parts of the world too. Nokia's engineers are finding that many Chinese and Indians access the Internet mainly through their mobile handsets. Such customers' requirements of their handsets may therefore be quite different to those of Western users, many of whom have computers at home and at work. GE's research lab in China has come up with a simplified magnetic-resonance imaging machine that costs a fraction of the one it sells in rich countries. The firm now plans to sell it worldwide. Wenda, a question-and-answer “knowledge community” product developed by Google in China to help overcome a lack of local content, was launched in Russia in June. Unilever has long had a strong distribution network in India, but it has expanded its efforts with a division called Shakti, which provides Indian women's self-help groups with business education and the chance to earn a living selling cheap sachets of Unilever products. The effort has proved so successful that Unilever introduced a high-tech element: the Shakti entrepreneurs now run kiosks with personal computers which villagers can rent to send e-mails and browse the web for things that can make a big difference to their lives, like market prices. Alan Lafley, who ran some of Procter & Gamble's Asian businesses before getting the top job at the American company, says many Asian firms began imitating what foreign ones did but are now “very innovative, especially with business models”. Mr Lafley sees Indian firms shaking up the way foreign companies operate, and not only with back-office services where many began. Hours after he uttered those words, Wipro, an Indian pioneer of software services said it would open a new development centre in Atlanta, Georgia, that will report to its headquarters in Bangalore. This is forcing P&G to innovate in other ways too. Mr Lafley uses the example of detergents in China, where the company is using a low-cost manufacturing method which he likens to Coca-Cola's “syrup” model, which supplies a concentrate to local bottlers. P&G provides secret, high-value “performance chemicals” to Chinese partners, who add basic ingredients and packaging before distributing the products. UNIT 2. STATISTICS IN BUSINESS READING/SPEAKING Text 1. Mastering business statistics 1 The volume of data you must confront every day makes a consistently detailed analysis impractical. Thus, the use of statistical techniques is a necessity. By evaluating a selective, isolated grouping of information or by dealing in averages, you can assign significance, discover trends, and project likely future events. 2 Statistics as a mathematical discipline suffers from a negative repu tation, largely because statistical concepts often are misused or used so selectively that information is distorted rather than clarified. By carefully setting rules for yourself, however, you will be able to use the techniques of statistics to improve communication and to support the recommen dations you convey to others. 3 You are expected to develop reliable information in three major areas where statistical techniques can be put to work: 1). Forecasting and budgeting. All managers are involved in the budg eting process in one way or another. You may prepare the annual budget for your company, your department, or for a special project; a factory supervisor forecasts output and defect levels; and a processing depart ment manager forecasts the number of transactions to be processed, number of employees needed to complete the task, and expenses involved in accomplishing the task. 2). Market testing. New products are tested by manufacturing com panies in regional trials; services may be tested and costed out in the same way. But even if you are not directly involved in selling your company's product or service, you still need to apply the estimating skills used to test-market—even if only for an idea. You may recommend a change in procedures, for example; in order to gain approval, you will have to "sell" the idea to the decision maker. Your task will be to prove that profits will increase as the result of putting your information into action. 3). Risk analysis. Your company's top management is always aware of risk. Marketing a new product, hiring a new employee, computeriz ing, and investing in long-term assets are all forms of risk. Accepting your ideas also represents risk—if your idea does not produce profits, then the company will lose money. Statistical techniques that identify risk levels help decision makers to identify how much risk is appropriate and whether or not a specific action is worth that risk. Setting objectives 4 Some people assume that statistics is too complex for anyone to grasp unless they have studied higher math in college. Some elements of statistics and probability are so abstract that a grounding in calculus is necessary; however, that advanced skill level is not required for the business applications you will put to use. 5 The use of Greek symbols to represent complex mathematical concepts and the appearance of lengthy formulas will undoubtedly intimidate many people and prevent them from attacking a text of statistics. However, by following a methodical approach and remember ing the actual applications as they affect you in your daily tasks, you will not have difficulty in mastering business statistics. 6 Set goals for yourself on two levels. First, decide that you will master the basic skills, terminology, and formulas related to business statistics. Second, consider the following goals for use of statistical information in your job: 1). Validate every fact and series of facts you use in statistical claims and conclusions. Draw a clear reference between the answer to a problem and the assumption base used to arrive at it. 2). Be prepared to support your contentions with your assumption base. Don't just assume that someone else will agree with you; examine alternatives, and either propose alternative methods for approaching a solution or dismiss them as flawed by preparing and presenting proof in support of your position. 3). Never quote statistics that you cannot find and establish. Avoid the habit of deferring to statistical statements to strengthen an argument and recognize that this habit only weakens credibility. 4). For every concept and technique involving statistics, find appro priate business applications and apply your skill in using those methods that work to solve problems you face. Avoid "over-statistifying" reports. 5). Avoid all arbitrary guesswork when dealing with financial infor mation. In too many cases, projections are based on poorly supported assumptions, or on no assumptions whatsoever. Question budgets based on the previous year's levels, sales forecasts that assume percentage increases over the previous year, and similar practices. Always look for the statistical means for supporting projections. 6). Remember that every decision you make will affect someone else. Even in a highly automated, efficiently run, technological environ ment, the two-dimensional nature of statistical information must not be allowed to take priority over the human element. Use statistics as a tool, not as a replacement for sound decisions. EXERCISES 1. Read the following words paying attention to the proper pronunciation of the underlined vowels, consonants, and the stress. to confront, isolated, to assign, discipline, forecasting, defect, to accomplish, trials, to apply, approval, increase (n/v), to assume, calculus, undoubtedly, affect (n/v), flawed, deferring, appropriate, arbitrary, automated, dimensional 2. Answer the following questions. 1 How do statistical techniques help in everyday business practice? 2 Why does Statistics suffer from a negative reputation? 3 How can statistics be put in action:
4 What makes Statistics difficult to understand? 5 How does Business Statistics differ from Statistics? 6 Which basic skills does a person need to master Statistics? 7 Why should we validate facts used in statistical claims? 8 To what extant can we trust statistics in everyday life? 9 How would you explain the phrase from the text “overstatistifying reports”? 10 The author of the article tells us about the two-dimensional nature of statistical information. What does the author mean? 3 Decide whether the following statements are true or false.
4 Complete the following sentences using your own ideas
5. Find English equivalents in Text 1.
6. Match words on the left with their corresponding definitions on the right.
7 Fill in the blanks using words from Task 6.
8. Find partners among the following words to make up a collocation.
9. Translate the following sentences using terms and collocations from the text and the previous tasks.
10 Fill in the gaps using words given below. justify intimidating volume master complicated automated applied budgets routines abstract A comprehension of statistics and probabilities need not be __1__. As __2__ mathematical ideas, the formulas and equations are __3__ and, for a good number of managers, difficult to __4__. How ever, when those same principles are __5__ to situations with which you are familiar, the building blocks are already in place. If you are involved in a "number-intensive" department such as accounting or auditing, the use of __6__ programs can help you manage a __7__ of information, as well as help you apply statistical skills. However, most managers deal with numbers only when preparing reports or __8__, so they cannot __9__ an investment in highly specialized software for statistical analysis. You can perform most of the mathematical __10__ introduced by using a hand calculator. 11. Choose the correct letter.
12 Choose the correct preposition.
13 Choose the proper form of the word to complete the sentence to rely 1 We should not be so _______________ on imported oil. 2 It is a pretty _______________ source of information. 3 I place complete ______________ on his judgment. 4 Do not ___________ on the bank lending you the money. to apply 1 The rule is only __________________ to UK citizens. 2 We had 250 _________________ for the lob. 3 Have you filled in the ________________ form for a new passport? 4 The science of numbers developed for particular purposes is called __________ Mathematics. 5 Scientific discoveries are often ____________ to industrial processes. to flaw 1 Your argument has one fatal _____________. 2 The mistake ______________ his report and made it less valuable. 3 Her ______________ performance made everybody happy. 4 The work done ________________ has brought satisfaction to the audience. 14 Look at the following pair of words, spot the difference and do the task. figures ≠ numbers
Insert the proper word figure or number
15 A. Choose the graph (A-E) which best fits each sentence. You can use each graph more than once. 
1 'Oil prices skyrocketed last week as fears over supplies grew.' 2 'The dollar-euro exchange rate remains steady at about 0.98.' 3 'Telecom shares plummeted on warnings of bad sales figures.' 4 'The FTSE 100 fell yesterday but bottomed out at 7,900.' 5 'Advent! Corporation shares advanced to $2.80.' 6 'Sales at Super Mart have stagnated over the past year.' 7 'Micro Sun shares soared yesterday on news of a possible bid.' 8 'The Hang Seng dived yesterday and closed at a five-year low.' 15 B. Choose the best word from the brackets to fill the gap. 1 The CAC 40....................at 3,051 before falling back to 2,992. (advanced/peaked/soared) 2 Anglia Agro......................to 121 pence from a high of 123. (eased/leapt/jumped) 3 Our share price rose in the morning but then it levelled.....................at 62 pence. (up/down/off) 4 Internet dealers say they will......................the price of a new car by over 10%. (slash/slump/bust) 5 It's not bad enough to call it a slump, but we are in a...................... (depression/repression/recession) 6 ................. means that growth is slow, but prices are rising quickly. (Stagnation/Stagflation/Inflation) 7 United Foods announced it is going to.............................1,500 jobs. (axe/dive/close) 8 As temperatures rise, the.......................for air-conditioning units increases. (boom/surge/demand) Text 2. Современную статистику отличает от «государствоведения» прошлых столетий не только значительно выросшая полнота и разносторонность содержащихся в ней сведений. В отношении характера сведений к ней теперь относят только то, что получает количественное выражение. Например, количественные данные о численности населения, пользующегося тем или иным языком в качестве своего разговорного, количественные данные о распределении населе ния, промышленности по регионам, и т.д. Общая черта сведений, составляющих статистику, — они все гда относятся не к одному единичному (индивидуальному) явле нию, а охватывают сводными характеристиками целый ряд та ких явлений, или, как говорят, их совокупность. Индивидуаль ное явление отличается от совокупности своей неразложимостью на самостоятельно существующие и аналогичные друг другу составные элементы. Совокупность же состоит именно из таких элементов. Исчезновение одного из элементов совокупности не уничтожает ее как таковую. Таким образом, статистика имеет дело, прежде всего, с ко личественной стороной явлений и процессов общественной жиз ни. Одной из характерных особенностей статистики является то, что при изучении количественной стороны общественных явле ний и процессов она всегда отображает качественные особеннос ти исследуемых явлений, т.е. изучает количество в неразрывной связи, единстве с качеством. Качество в научно-философском понимании — это свойства, присущие предмету или явлению, которые отличают данный пред мет или явление от других. Качество — это то, что делает предме ты и явления определенными. Пользуясь философской термино логией, можно сказать, что статистика — это наука, изучаю щая количественную сторону массовых общественных явлений в неразрывной связи с их качественной стороной, количествен ное выражение закономерностей общественного развития. Теоретической основой предмета статистики являются по ложения социально-экономической теории и принципы диалектического метода познания. 1 Translate the underlined words and word combinations in the text. 2 Translate the following words and phrases without looking back to the text of the interview. теоретическая основа - to reflect – полнота и разносторонность информации - numerical data – статистика имеет дело - isolated event – положения социально-экономической теории - population – отличать - mass public phenomena – неразрывная связь - distribution of the population – закономерности общественного развития - public activity – качество - object’s inherent features – сводная характеристика 3 Write a short summary of the text in English (80-100 words). 4 Study the following number writing rules. Rule 4 The simplest way to express large numbers is best. Round numbers are usually spelled out. Example: You can earn from one million to five million dollars. Rule 5 Write decimals in figures. Put a zero in front of a decimal unless the decimal itself begins with a zero. Examples: The plant grew 0.79 of a foot in one year. / The plant grew only .07 of a foot this year because of the drought. Rule 6 With numbers that have decimal points, use a comma only when the number has five or more digits before the decimal point. Place the comma in front of the third digit to the left of the decimal point. When writing out such numbers, use the comma where it would appear in the figure format. Use the word and where the decimal point appears in the figure format. Examples: $15,768.13: Fifteen thousand, seven hundred sixty-eight dollars and thirteen cents. / $1054.21: One thousand fifty-four dollars and twenty-one cents Note: If the number has no decimal point, authorities disagree on whether to begin using the comma with four-digit numbers or to begin using the comma with five-digit numbers. When writing out these numbers, it is recommended using the comma where it appears in the numerical form. 1,054 schools OR 1054 schools: one thousand, fifty-four schools OR one thousand fifty-four schools 12,154 schools: twelve thousand, one hundred fifty-four schools Practice: Decide whether the following sentences are correct or incorrect
Listening “Economic Performance” (Part 2) 1 You will hear the continuation of the interview with Vladimir Leonidovich Sokolin, Head of the State Statistical Agency in 2003. As you listen, find English equivalents of the following words and phrases. Question #5 теневая часть экономики, источник средств существования, в нашей теневой экономике нет никакого криминала Question #6 правительственный прогноз, не по нашей прихоти, иначе была бы вакханалия Question #7 перепись, повод для беспокойства, пенсии по старости, за выслугу лет, по инвалидности, по случаю потери кормильца. Question #8 каково семейное положение России, лица, со стоящие в незарегистрированном браке, спокойно проанализировать итоги переписи, половозрастная структура населения, сужаю щийся книзу конус Question #9 психологи уверяют, человек не может расслабиться, для того чтобы население просто сохранилось 2 Listen to the interview once again and complete the sentences using a word or a number of words. Question #5 1 _______________________ is a very important source of income. 2 18 million people being interviewed form ________________________. 3 Our shadow economy is out of ___________________ according to Mr Sokolin. Question #6 1 The index of consumer prices excludes ___________________________. 2 International and Russian statistical services use absolutely the same ________________________. Question #7 1 A new category of people who get incomes from ________________________ has been registered 2 According to the recent census 2 million people took a great interest in _________________________. 3 Rises worries the fact that 50 million people rely mostly on _____________________________. Question #8 1 __________________ without marriage became economically efficient nowadays. 2 Russia is _____________________ Western Europe in the number of out-of-marriage indicators. 3 According to the age and gender breakdown we have more ______________ than ________________. 4 Male _______________________ has declined recently. Question #9 1 Life expectancy rose in Europe when _______________________ was raised. 2 In 10-15 years _______________________ will strike future 15 years old individuals. 3 Many questions will find their answers after _______________________. Reading File Text 1 Accuracy in samples If you attempt to study an entire population and its size is too large for timely and accurate reporting, your approach will lack the efficiency that sample studies provide. Many populations (including the number of transactions occurring in a large company, units of production, or the number of customers you serve) are too diverse and too large for detailed study; thus, the use of a representative sample is a logical and time-saving alternative. Entire populations cannot always be studied, not only because they are large, but because the purpose itself might not be served by a thorough analysis. For example, a plant manager wants to determine how long employees can work without the rate of defects increasing. If one shift produces 20,000 units per hour, it would be very expensive to work that shift for many hours without pause to find the point at which defect rates begin to rise. Similarly, a stress test applied to a sample of products would indicate the point of breakage; it would serve no purpose to apply that test to every unit manufactured. Although it is not necessary to test entire populations, the sample must be broad enough to be fair and accurate. A key criterion in using an isolated sample is: The sample must fairly represent the popula tion. Although this point may seem obvious, it is often ignored in sample testing. A manager may select a sample likely to help draw a predetermined conclusion—even on an unconscious level. Thus, the proper use of sampling techniques must also involve an impartial mecha nism for selection. Example: An auditor wants to select a sample of disbursements over the past year. The first approach is to pick 200 checks from a population of 10,000; however, the auditor picks each one by hand and unintention ally concentrates on only one type of disbursement. It does not necessar ily reflect the error rate of the population. As an alternative, the range of check numbers is isolated, and 200 are selected at random. Example: A customer service manager wants to study the response time to customer requests. She first makes the selection according to the type of call; however, this approach is flawed, because response times vary by complexity of request. The sample is revised to study every twentieth call received. Example: A company conducts a survey of existing customers to determine whether a new product will find acceptance. The first sample, however, is of customers who buy from the company regularly. Man agement realizes that this is not representative of the "typical" or "average" customer and conducts another survey at random that is not limited to a particular type of customer. In the last example, the flaw is obvious. It might be that repeat customers were selected in the belief that they would be most likely to respond to a survey. But that very selection made the sample unrepresen tative. For the sample to be fair, it must be selected for the right reasons, and not for the purpose of increasing response or affecting the sample's outcome. A sample cannot be expected to produce accurate results if condi tions have changed since the sample information was gathered. This is a critical point, and one that is often forgotten by those who depend too heavily on statistical information without a corresponding review of the nonstatistical facts and conditions. Example: A manager conducts a statistical study to determine how quickly newly hired employees are trained to perform their jobs. He studies a sample of employees hired last year. However, overlooked in this study is the fact that new training techniques have been put into place since those employees were hired. We cannot always know for certain that a particular sample will be truly representative of the population, even when that sample is taken at random and current conditions are identical to the time that the sample was taken. However, random sampling docs remove all preconditions and assumptions that may be present with other methods. An auditor may unconsciously select only the largest transactions; or the customer service manager may believe that a certain type of request is representa tive when, in fact, it is not. Even with an attempt to achieve objectivity, a poorly drawn sample will mislead and cause an inaccurate result. Text 2 The probability factor The reliability of a sample can be estimated with reasonable certainty under the rules of probability. In a sense, probability is the mathematical opposite of statistics: A probability is the study of results when a process is well understood; a statistic shows us the result when we're not sure how the process occurs. Example: If you flip a coin 100 times, heads is likely to come up 50 times. We understand that the chance is 50-50. The process is under stood. Example: A review of 100 coin flips shows that in one instance heads came up 53 times; in another, it came up 49 times; and in a third test, heads appeared 48 times. From these results, it may be statistically concluded that, on average, heads appears half the time. From this information, the future number of heads can be estimated statistically, even if we do not understand the process that determines the result. You use probability estimates to judge the risk in a decision or to protect against the chance of a future loss. Even if the loss is unlikely to occur statistically, probability may demand protection. Example: Your company owns a warehouse and stores its inventory there. The total value of the facility and goods exceeds $12 million. With the science of probability, your insurance company can tell you that a fire or other loss will occur in one of every 10,000 warehouses; thus, your chances of suffering a loss are very low. However, your company could not afford a loss of that magnitude, so it purchases insurance and pays premiums to protect its assets. Statistically, companies that install sprinkler systems suffer fewer losses than those that do not. So, your company is able to reduce its insurance costs by installing sprinklers. In this case, probability and statistics both apply. First is the remote probability of a catastrophe—one that is unlikely to occur but that would represent a serious loss of value. Second is the statistical fact that risk— to the company and to the insurer—is drastically reduced with safety measures. In the evaluation of business risk in many forms, probability and statistics are closely related ideas. Using the concepts of statistical inference—carefully selecting a representative sample of a larger population—will help reduce the anal ysis of any task to a manageable level. And as long as you select a sample on an impartial basis, the probability that it is representative will increase. Thus, the basic principles of probability can be applied to the very process you use in approaching a large-population problem and in developing a statistical base for study. This idea is best demonstrated by referring again to the example of insuring business assets. The insurance company sets its premium rates according to historical incidents of loss. The premium charged to each policyholder must be adequate to cover the expected losses of the population of businesses with warehouses, as well as the insurer's own overhead and profit requirements. As statistical information changes, premiums are adjusted to reflect newer, updated information. At any given time, the probability of a loss must be calculated on the likely rate of loss. However, the statistical information available to the actuaries setting rates constantly changes those rates. If more losses occur with certain types of properties, materials, or locations, that statistical information must be incorporated into the probability study. And if, by taking safety measures, a company reduces its exposure to loss, the rates may be reduced. Text 3 |
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