Использование военной силы

2 Цит. по: Сверхдержавные страдания// За рубежом. 1996. №2 (1816). 12-18 января. С.3.

1 Что характерно, такие настроения среди американцев в целом расходились с точкой зрения, которая занимала ведущие позиции среди представителей истеблишмента. См. также: Public Opinion of the UN. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. Survey Reports. June 25, 1995. - http://people-press.org/.

2 Подробнее: Иванов О.П. Военная сила в глобальной стратегии США. М.: Восток – Запад, 2008.

3 См.: US Power in a Changing World: Report prepared by the Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Washington: Gov. Print. Off., 1990.

1 См.: Schlesinger J. Quest for a Post-Col War Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. Vol.72. 1993. №1. Р.19-28.

2 Подробнее: Lutwak, Edward N. Toward Post-Heroic Warfare // Foreign Affairs. 1995. May/June. См. также: Brown S. The Faces of Power: Constancy and Change in U.S. Foreign Policy from Truman to Clinton. New York: Columbia University Press, 1994. P.6.

3 См.: U.S. Intervention Policy for the Post-Cold War World. New Challenges and New Responses. Final Report of the 85 th American Assembly. 1994. April 7-10. New York: Arden House Harriman, The Columbia University, 1994.

4 Цит. по: США в новом мире: пределы могущества. М.: РИСИ, 1998. С.32.

5 См.: Luttwak E. Toward Post-Heroic Wartfare // Foreign Affairs. May/June.

6 Подробнее см., напр., Vox Populi. American Public Attitudes on America's Role in the World. America's Role in the World: Overview. - http://vox-populi.org. См. также: Richman A. Poll Trends: American Support for International Involvement // Public Opinion Quarterly. Vol.57. №2. Summer 1993. Р.264-274.

1 См.: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The View Before 9/11: America's Place in the World. A Special Analysis on Foreign Policy Attitudes Before the Attacks. Released: October 18, 2001. - http://people-press.org/reports/.

2 A WORLD TRANSFORMED: FOREIGN POLICY ATTITUDES OF THE U.S. PUBLIC AFTER SEPTEMBER 11. См.: http://www.worldviews.org/key_findings/us_911_report.htm.

1 См.: WORLDVIEWS 2002. THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS & THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES. U.S. GENERAL POPULATION TOPLINE REPORT. OCTOBER 2002.

2 См.: Americans on U.S. Role in the World After the Iraq War. April 29, 2003. - http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/.

1 См.: The Christian Science Monitor. November, 9. 2003.

2 См., напр., Alden E. Iraq war backlash fuels American isolationism // The Financial Times. November 18, 2005; Symptoms of 'Iraq syndrome' may not be all bad // Financial Times. June, 15. 2007.

3 См.: Brooks D. The Iraq Syndrome // The New York Times. February, 1. 2007.

1 См.: The International Herald Tribune. September, 20. 2001.

2 См.: America’s Place In The World 2005. OPINION LEADERS TURN CAUTIOUS, PUBLIC LOOKS HOMEWARD. FOR RELEASE: THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2005. Pew Research Center for The People & The Press. Council on Foreign Relations. - http://www.people-press.org.

3 American attitudes Americans & the World. US Role in the World. - http://www.americans-world.org/digest/overview/us_role/.

1 Public Agenda Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index. Вy Ana Maria Arumi and Scott Bittle with Steve Farkas and Jean Johnson. A Report from Public Agenda with support from Ford Foundation. August 1, 2005.

1 Не случайно Дж. Буш в своем очередном послании к Конгрессу США в январе 2006 г. много говорил о «фальшивом комфорте изоляционизма», доказывая, что США более никогда не удастся отсидеться за океаном – события 11 сентября 2001 года это наглядно продемонстрировали.

2 The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. Survey Reports. December, 3. 2009. - http://people-press.org/.

1 См.: Никсон Р. На арене. Воспоминания о победах, поражениях и возрождении. М.: Новости, 1992. С.393-394. Более того, намного ранее, еще в XVIII в., А. Гамильтон заявил: «…В любом случае война должна быть представлена населению не как результат собственной инициативы правительства, а в качестве вынужденной акции – тогда она будет иметь поддержку… На поддержку общественного мнения… можно рассчитывать лишь в войне, явно проистекающей из необходимости». См.: Hamilton A. Papers. Vol.VII. P.50.

2 См.: Russett B., Nincic M. American Public Opinion on the Use of Military Force Abroad // Political Science Quarterly. Vol.91. №3. Autumn 1976. Р.411-423.

1 Ladd, Everett Carll. Send in the Marines . . . Sometimes // Public Opinion. February / March 1980. P. 25-26.

2 См.: Kohut A, Toth, Robert C. Arms and the Рeople // Foreign Affairs. Vol.73. №6. November / December 1994. Р.47-62.

3 См.: Kohut A, Toth, Robert C. Intervention in the Post–Cold War World: A Public Perspective // Managing Conflict in the Post–Cold War World: The Role of Intervention. Aspen: Aspen Institute, 1995.

1 См.: Eichenberg, Richard C. Victory Has Many Friends: U.S. Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, 1981-2005 // International Security. Vol.30. 2005. Р.140-177.

2 Rusett B., Nincic M. American Opinion on the Use of Military Force Abroad // Political Science Quarterly. Vol.91. Fall 1976. Р.411-431.

1 Jentleson, Bruce W. The Pretty Prudent Public: Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force // International Studies Quarterly. Vol.36. March 1992. №1. Р.49-74; Jentleson, Bruce W. Still Pretty Prudent: Post-Cold War American Public Opinion on the Use of Military Force // Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol.42. August 1998. №4. Р.395-417. См. также: См. также: Kelleher, C. M. Security in the New Order: Presidents, Polls, and the Use of Force // Beyond the Beltway: Engaging the Public in U.S. Foreign Policy / Ed. by D. Yankelovich and I. M. Destler. New York: Norton and Company, 1994. Р.225-252.

2 Oneal, John R, Lian, B., Joyner, James H Jr. Are the American People "Pretty Prudent"? Public Responses to U.S. Uses of Force, 1950-1988 // International Studies Quarterly. Vol.40. №2. June 1996. Р.261-280.

3 Burbach, D.T. Presidential Approval and the Use of Force. Defense and Arms Control Studies Program Working Paper. Cambridge: Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Insti­tute of Technology, 1994.

4 Benson, John M. The Polls: U.S. Military Intervention // Public Opinion Quarterly. Vol.46. №4. Winter 1982. Р.592-598.

1 The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) / The Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA). Americans on Promoting Democracy. September 29, 2005.

2 См.: Page, Benjamin I., Shapiro, Robert Y., Dempsey, R.G. What Moves Public Opinion? // American Political Science Review.Vol.81. March 1987. Р.23-43.

3 Russett B. Controlling the Sword: The Democratic Governance of National Security. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1990. Р.46.

4 Lorell M., Kelley C., Hensler D. Casualties, Public Opinion,and Presidential Policy During the Vietnam War. Santa Monica: RAND, 1985. Р.28.

1 Mueller, John E. War, Presidents and Public Opinion. New York: Willey 1973.

2 Mueller, John E. Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994.

3 Примечательно, что еще в 1974 г. историк Томас Э. Бэйли подчеркнул следующее: «По мере того, как плата росла, плата золотом и кровью, и война казалась бесконечной и не сулившей победы, американский народ начинало охватывать беспокойство, и события принимали иной оборот». И далее: «Нарастающий гнев народа представлял собой классический образец того, как пробудившееся общественное мнение может вызвать резкий поворот в официальной политике». См.: Bailey Thomas A. A Diplomatic History of the American People. New York, 1974. См. также: Cotton T.J. War and American Democracy // Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol.30. 1986. Р.616-635; Stein A.A. The Nation at War. Baltimore: J. Hopkins University Press, 1990.

4 Mueller, John E. Public Opinion as a Constraint on U.S. Foreign Policy: Assessing the Perceived Value of American and Foreign Lives. International Studies Association. 41st Annual Convention. Los Angeles, CA. March 14-18, 2000; idem. Fifteen Propositions About American Foreign Policy and Public Opinion in an Era Free of Compelling Threats. March 31, 1996. Prepared for presentation at the National Convention of the International Studies Association. San Diego, California, April 16-20, 1996; idem. American Public Opinion and Military Ventures Abroad: Attention, Evaluation, Involvement, Politics, and the Wars of the Bushes. August 13, 2003. Prepared for delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, August 28-31, 2003. См. также: Mueller, John E. Retreat from doomsday: the obsolescence of major war. New York: Basic Books, 1989; idem. The remnants of war. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004; idem. Public Support for Military Ventures Abroad: Evidence from the Polls // The Real Lessons of the Vietnam War: Reflections Twenty-Five Years After the Fall of Saigon / Ed. by Robert T. Turner. Durham: Carolina Academic Press, 2002. Р.173-219.

1 См.: Mueller J. The Iraq Syndrome // Foreign Affairs. Vol.84. November/December 2005. №6.

2 См. также: Eichenberg, Richard C., Stoll, Richard J. The Political Fortunes of War: Iraq and the Political Standing of President George W. Bush. London: The Foreign Policy Centre, 2004; Karol D., Miguel E. Iraq War Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election. Berkeley: Departments of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, 2005; Gelpi Ch., Feaver, Peter D. and Reifler J. Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq // International Security. Vol.30. 2006. №3. Р.7-46; Boettcher III, William A., Cobb, Michel D. Echoes of Vietnam? Casual Framing and Public Perception of Succes and Failure in Iraq // Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol.50. №6. December 2006. Р.831-854.

1 См., напр., Kull S., Ramsay C. The Myth of the Reactive Public: American Public Attitudes on Military
Fatalities in the Post-Cold War Period // Public Opinion and the International Use of Force / Ed. by Philip P. Everts, P. Isernia. Routledge, 2001. Р.205-228.

2 См.: Feaver Peter D., Gelpi Ch., Reifler J. Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq // International Security. Winter 2005/2006. - http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content_stage/documents/IS3003_pp007-046.pdf. См. также: Feaver Peter D., Gelpi Ch. Choosing Your Battles: American Civil–Military Relations and the Use of Force. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005.

1 См. также: Feaver Peter D., Gelpi Ch. How Many Deaths Are Acceptable? A Surprising Answer // The Washington Post. November 7, 1999.

2 См.: Gartner, Scott S., Segura, Gary G., Wilkening M. All Politics Are Local: Local Losses and Individual Attitudes Toward the Vietnam War // Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol.41.October 1997. P.669-694. См. также: Gartner, Scott S., Segura, Gary G. War, Casualties, and Public Opinion // Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol.42. 1998. Р.278-300; Casualties and Public Support: An Experimental Analysis. Paper presented at the 2006 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA.

3 Record J. Hollow Victory: A Contrary View of the Gulf War. London: Brassey’s, 1993. Р.137.

4 См.: Broudy, R.A. Crisis, War, and Public Opinion: The Media and Public Support for the Media // Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War // Ed. by W. L. Bennett and D. L. Paletz. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994. P.210-227. См. также: Broudy, R.A. War & Politics. New York: Macmillan, 1973.

1 См.: Larson, Eric V. Casualties and Consensus: The Historical Role of Casualties in Domestic Support for U.S. Military Operations. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 1996. См. также: Schwarz , Benjamin C. Casualties, Public Opinion & U.S. Military Intervention: Implications for U.S. Regional Deterrence Strategies. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 1994; Johnson, Dominic D. P., Tierney D. Failing to Win: Perceptions of Victory and Defeat in International Politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006.

1 Morris D. Behind the Oval Office: Winning the Presidency in the Nineties. New York: Random House, 1997. Р.340.

1 См.: Luttwak, Edward N. Where Are the Great Powers? // Foreign Affairs. Vol.73. July/August 1994. P.23-28; idem. Toward Post-Heroic Warfare // Foreign Affairs. Vol.74. May/June 1995. P.109-122; idem. A Post-Heroic Military Policy // Foreign Affairs. Vol.75. July/August 1996. P.33-44.

2 См.: Erdmann, Andrew P. N. The U.S. Presumption of Quick, Costless Wars // Orbis. Vol.43. №3. Summer 1999. Р.363-381.

3 См.: Luttwak, Edward N. A Post-Heroic Military Policy // Foreign Affairs. July/August 1996.

1 См.: Los Angeles Times. February, 19. 2009.

1 Summers, Harry G. Jr. On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War. 1972.

2 Большинство американцев, как правило, выступают в пользу применения вооруженных сил в одностороннем порядке только для защиты жизненно важных национальных интересов США и при проведении сравнительно недорогих гуманитарных операций, а также операций по борьбе с терроризмом.

1 См.: Kohut A, Toth, Robert C. Arms and the Рeople